Raft of policy changes unlikely to shift subdued market
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05/07/2024. 13:09
KoreaPost
Amidst a raft of policy changes, the renewed weakness in Aotearoa New Zealand's home values continued in June.
CoreLogic's House Price Index fell 0.5% in June, taking the quarterly change to -0.8% The month on month decline was the largest drop in prices since June 2023, and continues a trend of minor falls seen in recent months.
Over the past 12 months to June, NZ house prices are up 1.8%, equating to a $16,000 boost in home owner wealth. The annual rise reflects the earlier but temporary 3.2% rise in prices between September 2023 and March 2024. That previous momentum stalled as high mortgage interest rates continue to restrict housing credit demand.
Each of the main centres recorded flat to falling prices over the month, with both Christchurch and Dunedin experiencing no change in June, the best performers.
CoreLogic NZ Head of Research, Nick Goodall said the last twelve months could be described as a dead cat bounce, with confidence perhaps misjudging the trajectory for mortgage interest rates.
"Inflation has remained sticky, particularly domestically, as the RBNZ has stayed true to their commitment of using monetary policy to bring consumer prices under control. It looks although interest rates could stay higher for longer, restricting borrower numbers and lending amounts."
Mr Goodall noted the latest lending figures from RBNZ showed a further evolution in the mix of lending for different purposes.
"In May, 24% of new residential mortgage lending was from borrowers changing bank loan providers. This is the second largest share on record, below only March 2023, when 26% of new mortgage lending was associated with refinancers switching banks. The two-year average is 20% and in December 2023 the share was as low as 18%.
"This change illustrates the persistent low levels of real estate transactions as a source of new mortgages for banks. With such a competitive lending environment, it's no surprise to see borrowers seeking out the best deal as lenders work hard to retain borrowers and attract new customers away from their competitors," he said.
CoreLogic House Price Index - National and Main Centres
Change in property values | Average Value | |||||
Month | Quarter | Annual | From peak | |||
New Zealand | -0.5% | -0.8% | 1.8% | -11.1% | $927,284 | |
Auckland | -1.2% | -2.6% | -0.1% | -16.9% | $1,263,937 | |
Hamilton | -0.4% | 0.8% | 1.3% | -10.4% | $813,602 | |
Tauranga | -0.1% | -0.7% | 0.7% | -13.1% | $1,030,783 | |
Wellington | -0.2% | -0.5% | 3.1% | -19.3% | $918,380 | |
Christchurch | 0.0% | 0.3% | 4.5% | -2.3% | $765,011 | |
Dunedin | 0.0% | 1.5% | 5.1% | -9.1% | $649,866 | |
CoreLogic House Price Index Main Centre Average Value
CoreLogic House Price Index Auckland
Change in property values | Average Value | ||||
Month | Quarter | Annual | From peak | ||
Rodney | -0.6% | -1.2% | 1.6% | -11.2% | $1,261,517 |
North Shore | -1.1% | -3.6% | 2.0% | -13.9% | $1,443,101 |
Waitakere | -1.3% | -1.9% | -0.1% | -19.1% | $992,623 |
Auckland City | -1.4% | -2.3% | -1.6% | -17.7% | $1,453,207 |
Manukau | -1.2% | -3.3% | 1.1% | -17.7% | $1,131,810 |
Papakura | -1.4% | -3.6% | 2.2% | -17.4% | $895,697 |
Franklin | -0.8% | -2.1% | 0.0% | -15.0% | $896,837 |
In June, Auckland's negative turn was prolonged, down -1.2% over the month, and takes the quarterly fall to -2.6%. This Is the largest quarterly drop in prices since August 2023.
Mr Goodall said Auckland's weakness was somewhat of a surprise but likely a reflection of affordability challenges, considering the share of average income required to service a typical new mortgage in the largest city of the country is 55%, compared to 43% in Dunedin.
Mr Goodall said Auckland's weakness was somewhat of a surprise but likely a reflection of affordability challenges, considering the share of average income required to service a typical new mortgage in the largest city of the country is 55%, compared to 43% in Dunedin.
The rate of value falls across Auckland's sub-markets was relatively consistent.
Rodney and Franklin, sub-regions further from the CBD, experienced slightly lower rates of fall over the month, while the more populous areas saw values fall by at least 1.1% in June.
Its clear affordability remains an issue across the Super City, with the average value ranging from the high $800k's in both Papakura and Franklin to over $1.44m in both North Shore and Auckland City" Mr Goodall said.
"Despite strong population growth, due to high net migration, Auckland property values are going through a renewed period of weakness as a long-term improvement in supply, following strong new dwelling growth and an uplift in properties listed for sale suppresses vendor power when matched with cautious and composed buyers."
CoreLogic House Price Index Wellington
Change in property values | Average Value | ||||
Month | Quarter | Annual | From peak | ||
Kāpiti Coast | 0.7% | 2.5% | 5.4% | -14.5% | $849,882 |
Porirua | 1.0% | 2.3% | 6.4% | -16.3% | $846,211 |
Upper Hutt | -1.5% | -1.0% | 5.3% | -20.6% | $761,577 |
Lower Hutt | -0.7% | -0.4% | 3.1% | -21.0% | $791,930 |
Wellington City | -0.1% | ||||