Lower interest rates may take time to ripple through the housing market

Lower interest rates may take time to ripple through the housing marke…

0 개 564 KoreaPost

CoreLogic's Home Value Index (HVI) showed that the property market remained weak in August, with values down by another 0.5%. That was the sixth consecutive fall since February's mini peak.


Moreover, following revisions to previous months data as the index captures more information (July now down -1.0%), this now takes the total fall since February to 3.7% nationally, or around $31,100 lower.

The median value across all stock now sits at $811,583, which remains about 17% above pre-COVID levels. But it's also about 17% lower than the January 2022 peak.


August's results are the second release to use the new hedonic methodology, which improves the timeliness and accuracy in measurement of changes to the residential real estate market. The increased weighting on recent sales evidence is clearly showing the re-emergence of soft housing market conditions across the country.

Indeed, apart from Christchurch (up by 0.2%), there were falls in values across each of the main centres in August, with Auckland dropping by another 1.0% (taking its fall since a peak in January to 6.0%) and Hamilton by 0.8%. The falls in Tauranga, Dunedin, and Wellington were more modest at less than half a percent over the month.

CoreLogic NZ Chief Property Economist, Kelvin Davidson said:
No doubt many households will be feeling happier now that the official cash rate is falling and mortgage rates are headed lower too. This sentiment effect, as well as the direct boost to borrowers finances, could support housing in the near term.

Yet the latest, actual fall in values is a timely reminder that the market still faces considerable challenges too. For a start, housing affordability is still stretched, while at the same time the labour market downturn is fully underway. Even if people haven't lost their jobs, the increased feelings of insecurity will still tend to flow through to less enthusiasm to trade property or pay top-dollar.

"It's also clear that the bargaining ' still only for the more limited pool of buyers who can actually secure the finance."

This all adds up to likely further restraint on property values in the coming months, although the potential impact of lower mortgage rates can't be ignored."

Index results for August 2024 National and Main Centres
 
 
Month
Quarter
Annual
From post-COVID peak
From recent cyclical peak
From pre-COVID levels
Median  value
NZ
-0.5%
-2.2%
0.7%
-16.8%
-3.7%
17.2%
$811,583
Auckland
-1.0%
-3.3%
-1.4%
-21.8%
-6.0%
9.0%
$1,070,494
Hamilton
-0.8%
-1.9%
2.5%
-12.1%
-2.7%
19.9%
$734,414
Tauranga
-0.4%
-2.1%
-0.2%
-17.2%
-4.2%
20.9%
$910,449
Wellington
-0.1%
-2.1%
2.7%
-21.5%
-3.7%
9.7%
$826,976
Christchurch
0.2%
-0.3%
3.6%
-7.0%
-1.2%
40.7%
$686,806
Dunedin
-0.2%
-1.7%
3.8%
-11.5%
-2.3%
10.2%
$604,324

Auckland
 
Each of Auckland's sub-markets registered a fall in property values in August, ranging from 0.5-0.9% in Franklin, Waitakere, Manukau, Rodney, and North Shore, down to more notable weakness in Auckland City (-1.4%) and Papakura (-1.7%).
 
That said, compared to a year ago, Auckland City has held up a little better than elsewhere, only down by 0.6%, versus falls of around 2% or more in Manukau, Waitakere, Rodney, and Papakura.


 
Putting aside these variations from area to area, however, Mr Davidson noted that the bigger picture for Auckland's housing market is one of generally renewed weakness.
 
"Each part of Auckland has dropped by 3% or more since the latest mini-peak for values, and although mortgage rates are now falling, affordability challenges still persist. Meanwhile, an elevated stock of listings gives buyers the pricing power, and the continued flow of new-builds hitting the market only adds to those effects."

 
Month
Quarter
Annual
From post-COVID peak
From recent cyclical peak
From pre-COVID levels
Median value
Rodney
-0.8%
-4.5%
-2.1%
-20.7%
-5.9%

Investors on the rebound and first home buyer…

댓글 0 | 조회 491 | 17시간전
New Zealand's property ma… 더보기

NZ Compare Awards 2024 Finalists Announced

댓글 0 | 조회 252 | 1일전
The NZ Compare Awards 202… 더보기

More property sellers face losses amidst weak…

댓글 0 | 조회 744 | 8일전
By Kelvin Davidson, CoreL… 더보기

99,000 children in persistent poverty

댓글 0 | 조회 518 | 10일전
98,900 children in Aotear… 더보기

First Home Buyers capitalise on soft market

댓글 0 | 조회 553 | 2024.11.07
First home buyers (FHBs) … 더보기

Slowing rate of decline signals potential val…

댓글 0 | 조회 595 | 2024.11.01
Property values in New Ze… 더보기

Investors take a fresh look at the NZ propert…

댓글 0 | 조회 673 | 2024.10.24
Mortgaged multiple proper… 더보기

NZ construction costs show minor uptick amids…

댓글 0 | 조회 470 | 2024.10.16
Tax changes, high levels … 더보기

OCR down again as mortgage rates set to keep …

댓글 0 | 조회 771 | 2024.10.09
Commentary from Kelvin Da… 더보기

Spring marks subtle shift in market condition…

댓글 0 | 조회 267 | 2024.10.08
Spring has sprung, but gr… 더보기

Rate cuts haven't pumped up house prices yet

댓글 0 | 조회 409 | 2024.10.03
CoreLogic's hedonic Home … 더보기

Minister of Health announcement on Fetal Alco…

댓글 0 | 조회 532 | 2024.09.26
The Minister of Health Ho… 더보기

Where are Aotearoa NZ's $1 million+ housing m…

댓글 0 | 조회 694 | 2024.09.25
By Nick Goodall, CoreLogi… 더보기

5 of the best ways to enjoy spring in Aucklan…

댓글 0 | 조회 377 | 2024.09.24
Tāmaki Makaurau is one of… 더보기

Property sales slowly rising heading into spr…

댓글 0 | 조회 441 | 2024.09.19
With the spring selling s… 더보기

Local alcohol policy: Freeze on new liquor st…

댓글 0 | 조회 293 | 2024.09.16
From today (Monday 16 Sep… 더보기

Property sector: New Zealand's economic power…

댓글 0 | 조회 417 | 2024.09.12
WELLINGTON, NEW ZEALAND -… 더보기

Housing market still flat despite interest ra…

댓글 0 | 조회 339 | 2024.09.10
House prices do not yet r… 더보기
Now

현재 Lower interest rates may take time to ripple …

댓글 0 | 조회 565 | 2024.09.05
CoreLogic's Home Value In… 더보기

Low deposit mortgages help fuel first home bu…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,229 | 2024.08.22
First home buyers (FHBs) … 더보기

Affordability challenges persist despite soft…

댓글 0 | 조회 353 | 2024.08.14
By Kelvin Davidson, CoreL… 더보기

Frigid housing market's winter blues continue…

댓글 0 | 조회 389 | 2024.08.13
Residential property valu… 더보기

Resale profits decline as buyer bargaining po…

댓글 0 | 조회 280 | 2024.08.08
By Kelvin Davidson, CoreL… 더보기

Rising Confidence Attracts Buyers To Auckland…

댓글 0 | 조회 651 | 2024.08.05
A significant number of b… 더보기

Property values down 2.5% from cyclical peak

댓글 0 | 조회 935 | 2024.08.01
CoreLogic's updated, hedo… 더보기