Housing market still flat despite interest rate cuts

Housing market still flat despite interest rate cuts

0 개 339 KoreaPost

House prices do not yet reflect the marked increase in consumer confidence following recent interest rate cuts.

On the contrary, our latest QV House Price Index shows values decreased nationally by an average of 2% throughout the three months to the end of August – a fraction of a percentage point more than in the July quarter. The average home is now worth $905,357, which is almost exactly the same as at the start of the 2024 calendar year.



"Home values have continued to slowly ebb and flow throughout the first eight months of 2024, but they are now effectively flat overall for the calendar year," said QV operations manager James Wilson. "This is reflective of a housing market that has been severely constricted by strong economic headwinds – including rising unemployment, credit constraints and, of course, high interest rates."

"Now that interest rates are finally coming down, we are seeing renewed interest in housing generally across the country. However, this won't necessarily translate into home value growth while there's such an excess of stock available for sale. Values will tighten again when prospective buyers aren't as spoilt for choice as they are currently, which could take a while," he added.

In the meantime, Aotearoa's largest cities experienced the largest average home value declines this quarter. Home values in Auckland and Wellington reduced by 2.8% and 3% respectively, with the former recording its seventh consecutive month of negative growth. Hamilton (-1.7%), Tauranga (-1.5%), Christchurch (-1.3%) and Dunedin (-1.1%) also recorded modest quarterly home value reductions in August.

"An abundance of real estate listings – especially in and around our largest cities – is expected to keep a firm lid on home value growth, even as increasing numbers of buyers start coming out of the woodwork as we move into spring. Their prevailing mindset now seems to be one of cautious optimism, that we're almost through the worst of it and now is a good time to see what's happening out there in the market," said Mr Wilson.

"Of course, we also expect to see even more real estate listings in the months ahead, as spring is traditionally when the real estate selling season starts ramping up again. More investors will look to sell properties following the changes to the bright line test back in July, and sellers who pulled their listings after trying and failing to sell earlier in the year may even look to try again now that there's an uptick in activity and a general sense that confidence amongst buyers is increasing."

Mr Wilson said this would continue to promote soft-to-flat value conditions nationally in the short term. "Spring has sprung and interest rates are coming down – but don't expect to see house prices suddenly take off again soon," he concluded. 

3734708104_94pHCXwn_0167a6982e33edf3047dc9b80706673194e67f13.png
Download a high resolution version of the latest QV value map here.

Northland

The average home value has reduced across the wider Northland region by 3.7% this quarter.

The smallest average reduction was in Whangarei, where the average home value decreased by 2.6% this quarter to $720,741. 

Kaipara had the largest average decline – down 5.1% to $817,350 – with Far North not far behind with a 4.7% quarterly reduction to $677,926. 

Auckland

Just one of the Super City's seven former local government areas is still showing a nominal amount of annual home value growth.

The average home value in Rodney is just 0.1% higher than at the same time last year at $1,224,613, despite a 3.3% reduction in the August quarter. All other areas are in the red annually, with Manukau (-2.6%) and Papakura (-2.7%) showing the largest average home value deficits over the last 12 months.

In the latest quarter, home values reduced by an average of 2.8% across the wider Auckland region – a slightly smaller quarterly reduction than the 3.4% decline recorded throughout the three months to the end of July. 

Local QV registered valuer Hugh Robson said there were signs that the market may have bottomed out now, with mortgage rates starting to ease back and the arrival of spring. 

"We've witnessed a slight improvement in the market over the past 4-5 weeks, with an increase in the number of sales in most suburbs – most notably on the North Shore and in east Auckland – and also a moderate increase in the number of listings," he said.

"More developers, investors, and buyers in general are out there looking at properties now."


Tauranga

Home values in Tauranga are now just 0.5% higher on average than at the same time last year.

It follows another quarter of negative growth, with the city's average home value reducing by 1.5% to $1,015,296. This includes a small average decline of 0.4% during the month of August, marking three consecutive months of declines.

Waikato

The average home in the Waikato region is now worth the same as one year ago.

The latest QV House Price Index shows annual home value growth across the region is now sitting at precisely 0% on average. It follows another quarter of negative growth – 1.9% throughout the three months to the end of August 2024 – and four consecutive months of declines.

In Hamilton, the average home value is just 0.2% higher on average than at the same time last year. In the latest quarter, the city's average value reduced by 1.7% to $774,685, compared to the 1.4% quarterly decline reported in our previous index.

Local QV property consultant Marshall Wu said the outlook for the housing sector remained complex due to declines in new dwelling building consents and mortgage rates. 

"Vendors have become more active with real estate flowing onto the market at an above average pace through autumn and winter, particularly following the announcement of a cut in the OCR to 5.25% in August. The increased flow of advertised properties is testing the depth of buyer demand. However, as we head into spring, an uplift in market activity can be anticipated in the coming weeks," he said. 

"First-home buyers are benefiting from lower asking prices and reduced interest rates in the current market. While there is still an underlying mismatch between housing supply and demand, some rebalancing appears to be underway, suggesting a potential correction or an incoming soft-landing in house prices."

Taranaki

It has been another quarter marked by slow decline in the Taranaki region. 

Across the wider region, the average home has reduced in value by 1.3% this quarter – just 0.1% off the quarterly rate of decline reported in last month's QV House Price Index.

In New Plymouth, the average home value has reduced by 1.4% to $711,009 this quarter. That figure is still 0.7% higher than at the same time last year. 

Stratford recorded the largest average home value reduction this quarter at 4%, with South Taranaki almost breaking even with a minimal reduction of 0.1% on average. 

Hawke's Bay

Residential property values continue to diminish across most of the Hawke's Bay.

The August quarter saw the average home value in Napier ($734,922) and Hastings ($769,447) reduce by 4% and 3% respectively. These are considerably larger rates of decline than the 1.8% and 1.1% reductions reported respectively in last month's QV House Price Index. 

Only Central Hawke's Bay managed to buck the trend this quarter, with its average home value increasing by 1.2% to $580,318 throughout the three months to the end of August 2024.

Palmerston North

Home values in Palmerston North fared better than most this quarter, reducing by an average of just 0.8%.

The city's average home value is now $635,441, which is still 2.1% more than the same time last year, but 1.1% less than at the start of 2024. 

Local QV registered valuer Olivia Betts commented: "This economic environment highlights the complex factors influencing current housing trends, where property condition and financial accessibility are key in shaping buyer behaviour and market outcomes.

"We're continuing to see a divide between different property types. Homes with older, outdated features are struggling to attract buyers and are often on the market for extended periods, whereas there's been a noticeable rise in interest for homes that have been recently modernised, indicating a growing preference for updated amenities."

"In the Palmerston North area, we have seen a steady pattern over the last 12 months. We expect this to continue throughout the remaining months of 2024," she added.

Wairarapa

The average home in Carterton is now worth 0.9% less than at the same time last year. It follows an August quarter that saw its average home value reduce by 0.7% to $627,033. 

Meanwhile, average home values remain 4.6% and 1.6% higher annually in Masterton and South Wairarapa respectively. This quarter, South Wairarapa's average home value reduced by 1.9% to $744,472, while Masterton's average home value reduced by 1.1% to $573,543.

Wellington

Wellington's average rate of home value decline increased again this quarter.

Our latest QV House Price Index shows the region's average home value reduced by 3% to $845,718 throughout the August 2024 quarter – compared to a 1.9% average decline in the three months to the end of July, and a 1.2% average decline in the three months to the end of June.

The quarterly rate of reduction also escalated across every district, with Hutt City (-3.9%) recording the largest deficit this quarter and Upper Hutt City (-1.4%) recording the smallest. 

Local QV senior consultant David Cornford said the recent drop in the official cash rate and corresponding interest rate cuts would likely spark increased buyer interest – "but it's not expected to translate into significant value gains in the near future". 

"As lower interest rates start to work their way through we should see a more balanced market start to develop. In the meantime, given the current economic and employment conditions in the capital, the majority of potential buyers are in no great hurry to make property decisions."

"There continues to be a high number of unsold properties on the market and as we move into spring stock levels are likely to increase further. This gives buyers plenty of options and also bargaining power," Mr Cornford said.

Nelson

Nelson is among just a handful of cities showing a nominal amount of home value growth this quarter.

Our latest QV House Price Index shows its average home value increased by 0.3% to $779,367 throughout the August 2024 quarter – compared to a 1.4% average decline in the three months to the end of July, and a 0.9% average decline in the three months to the end of June.

Marlborough also experienced a minor increase in average home value – up 0.1% to $712,143.
QV Nelson/Marlborough manager Craig Russell said property values had remained generally stable overall in recent months with very little change in values. "Inventory remains high largely due to low sales volumes and properties taking an extended period to sell."

"Insurance challenges are also continuing to impact the local market. Properties with perceived risk are often being put through extended due diligence periods to confirm their level of insurance cover, with possible exclusions or heightened premiums for specific loss types. Properties with prior damage or claim history are typically being discounted by purchasers," he said.

"Properties up to $700,000 in price are generally performing the best. This is typically the first-home buyer segment of the market. However, given the economic environment, some owner-occupiers are downsizing and therefore are competing with first-home buyers."

West Coast

Low sales volumes are still causing residential property values to fluctuate up and down on the West Coast.

However, on an annualised basis, home value levels in the region are still looking relatively robust by national standards. They are 6.9% higher than the same time last year in Westland, 7.3% higher in Grey District, and 3.6% higher in Buller. 

This is compared to a national average increase of 1.3% since the end of August last year.

Canterbury

Home values have continued to slowly ebb and flow across the wider Canterbury region this quarter.

The latest QV House Price Index shows home values have reduced across the wider region by an average of 1.1% throughout the three months to the end of August – compared to a 0.7% decline in the July quarter, and a 0.3% increase in the June quarter.

Hurunui (-4%) recorded the largest average home value reduction this quarter, followed by Christchurch (-1.3%) and Selwyn (-1.2%), while Ashburton (1.5%), Timaru (0.4%), and Mackenzie (0.3%) all recorded modest amounts of positive growth.

The average value of a home in the Garden City is now $760,929, which is 4.5% higher than at the same time last year. Across the wider region, only Ashburton (6.8%) and Timaru (5.7%) have experienced more growth over the past 12 months. 

Otago

Property values have flattened across the Otago region.

Our latest QV House Price Index shows the average home value reduced across the wider region by 0.1% in the August quarter – the same rate of growth as in the July quarter. The average home value is now 6.6% higher than it was 12 months ago, and 3% higher than at the start of the calendar year.

Across the wider region, Queenstown (see below) experienced the most growth at 0.5% for the quarter, while Dunedin experienced the largest average home value decline at 1.1% for the quarter.

"Interest rate drops are now being seen across lenders, with the expectation that we should be in for further cuts to the OCR within 2024," said local QV registered valuer Rebecca Johnston. "For now, though, it continues to be a buyers' market."

"Demand appears to have weakened somewhat for high-density new-build off-plan two-bedroom townhouses within the past several months, indicating this market is currently somewhat saturated. Developers have only recently introduced two-year rental guarantees, which have been established in other high-density townhouse development areas elsewhere in the country. Market weakening over the past four months for this sector is indicated between a range of 3.73% and 6.37%."

Queenstown

Once again, Queenstown was one of just a handful of urban areas to record a minor amount of home value growth this quarter.

Its average home value increased by 0.5% to $1,836,236 throughout the three months to the end of August 2024 – slightly up on the 0.3% growth reported for the July quarter. That figure is 6% higher than it was 12 months ago and 3.3% higher than at the start of this calendar year.

Invercargill

Residential property values have slowly zigged and zagged in the Deep South.

Invercargill's average home value reduced by 1.1% this quarter to $480,840, after earlier increasing by 1% and 0.4% in the June and July quarters respectively. That figure is 4.3% higher than the same time last year, and now just 0.7% more than at the start of 2024.

Local QV registered valuer Andrew Ronald commented: "The latest QV House Price Index shows values in Invercargill decreased by 0.6% compared to the previous month, which is the third small decrease in a row. The average Capital Value is now $480,840, dropping from a peak in March 2022 of $498,473."

"Market conditions remain flat across all price brackets. There is still steady demand from first-home buyers, and investors are beginning to return to the market with the restoration of interest tax deductibility rules. Continued high interest rates appear to be limiting price growth," Mr Ronald added.



Source: QV 

Investors on the rebound and first home buyer…

댓글 0 | 조회 494 | 19시간전
New Zealand's property market continues to present mixed signals, with sales volumes rising yet the overall level of activity remaining subdued, with … 더보기

NZ Compare Awards 2024 Finalists Announced

댓글 0 | 조회 253 | 1일전
The NZ Compare Awards 2024 are here, and last night, our star-studded finalists were announced at our Finalists Event - an event of connecting and cel… 더보기

More property sellers face losses amidst weak…

댓글 0 | 조회 744 | 8일전
By Kelvin Davidson, CoreLogic NZ Chief Property EconomistNew Zealand's property market remains subdued, with a rising share of sellers incurring losse… 더보기

99,000 children in persistent poverty

댓글 0 | 조회 518 | 10일전
98,900 children in Aotearoa New Zealand are living in persistent poverty. This is according to thenewly released official Statistics NZ definitionfor … 더보기

First Home Buyers capitalise on soft market

댓글 0 | 조회 553 | 2024.11.07
First home buyers (FHBs) remain a key presence in the property market, consistently accounting for more than one quarter (27%) of purchases, comfortab… 더보기

Slowing rate of decline signals potential val…

댓글 0 | 조회 595 | 2024.11.01
Property values in New Zealand fell -0.5% in October according to CoreLogic's hedonic Home Value Index (HVI) - the eighth drop in a row - taking the t… 더보기

Investors take a fresh look at the NZ propert…

댓글 0 | 조회 673 | 2024.10.24
Mortgaged multiple property owners (MPOs) remain less active than usual, but there are early signs that some are starting to return – a signal that 'm… 더보기

NZ construction costs show minor uptick amids…

댓글 0 | 조회 470 | 2024.10.16
Tax changes, high levels of existing stock on the market, and credit-constrained buyers have compounded the building industry slowdown, holding constr… 더보기

OCR down again as mortgage rates set to keep …

댓글 0 | 조회 772 | 2024.10.09
Commentary from Kelvin Davidson, CoreLogic NZ Chief Property EconomistLeading up to today's official cash rate decision, there were equally strong cas… 더보기

Spring marks subtle shift in market condition…

댓글 0 | 조회 267 | 2024.10.08
Spring has sprung, but green shoots of growth remain scarce across New Zealand Aotearoa's housing market – for the time being.Our latest QV House Pric… 더보기

Rate cuts haven't pumped up house prices yet

댓글 0 | 조회 409 | 2024.10.03
CoreLogic's hedonic Home Value Index (HVI) showed another subdued month for the property market in September,with values down by a further 0.5%. That … 더보기

Minister of Health announcement on Fetal Alco…

댓글 0 | 조회 532 | 2024.09.26
The Minister of Health Hon Dr Shane Retiaddressedthe FASD Symposium in Auckland today and announced a further $4.85 million dollar investment in the F… 더보기

Where are Aotearoa NZ's $1 million+ housing m…

댓글 0 | 조회 694 | 2024.09.25
By Nick Goodall, CoreLogic NZHead of Research$1 million isn't what it used to be when it comes to owning property. That being said the $1 million figu… 더보기

5 of the best ways to enjoy spring in Aucklan…

댓글 0 | 조회 378 | 2024.09.24
Tāmaki Makaurau is one of the first parts of Aotearoa to enjoy spring. Whether you believe that the season kicks off on the meteorological start date … 더보기

Property sales slowly rising heading into spr…

댓글 0 | 조회 442 | 2024.09.19
With the spring selling season on the horizon New Zealand property sales continue their upward trend, however buyers remain in control with sales volu… 더보기

Local alcohol policy: Freeze on new liquor st…

댓글 0 | 조회 293 | 2024.09.16
From today (Monday 16 September)24 areas,including Auckland’s city centre, will be subject to a freeze on the opening of new off-licences as Auckland’… 더보기

Property sector: New Zealand's economic power…

댓글 0 | 조회 417 | 2024.09.12
WELLINGTON, NEW ZEALAND -Property continues to hold the title of New Zealand's largest industry, according to new insights from Property Council New Z… 더보기
Now

현재 Housing market still flat despite interest ra…

댓글 0 | 조회 340 | 2024.09.10
House prices do not yet reflect the marked increase in consumer confidence following recent interest rate cuts.On the contrary, our latest QV House Pr… 더보기

Lower interest rates may take time to ripple …

댓글 0 | 조회 565 | 2024.09.05
CoreLogic's Home Value Index (HVI) showed that the property market remained weak in August, with values down by another 0.5%.That was the sixth consec… 더보기

Low deposit mortgages help fuel first home bu…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,229 | 2024.08.22
First home buyers (FHBs) continue to maintain near-record market share even as they battle affordability constraints, according toCoreLogic's August H… 더보기

Affordability challenges persist despite soft…

댓글 0 | 조회 353 | 2024.08.14
By Kelvin Davidson, CoreLogic NZ Chief Property EconomistSome housing affordability metrics, such as the time needed to save a deposit, are at their l… 더보기

Frigid housing market's winter blues continue…

댓글 0 | 조회 389 | 2024.08.13
Residential property values are slowly buckling under the strain of the ongoing economic downturn, with just three of New Zealand's main urban areas r… 더보기

Resale profits decline as buyer bargaining po…

댓글 0 | 조회 280 | 2024.08.08
By Kelvin Davidson, CoreLogic NZ Chief Property EconomistThe New Zealand property market continues to shift in favour of buyers as the proportion of p… 더보기

Rising Confidence Attracts Buyers To Auckland…

댓글 0 | 조회 652 | 2024.08.05
A significant number of buyers were drawn into the Auckland residential housing market in July attracted by growing confidence that interest rates hav… 더보기

Property values down 2.5% from cyclical peak

댓글 0 | 조회 935 | 2024.08.01
CoreLogic's updated, hedonic Home Value Index (HVI)showed a 0.5% fall in values across NZ in July - the fifth monthly fall in a row - taking the total… 더보기

New research from CPAG reveals renting is inc…

댓글 0 | 조회 658 | 2024.07.31
The Child Poverty Action Group (CPAG) is calling for better monitoring of housing stock, particularly private rentals, asnew researchreveals the share… 더보기

Average Auckland rent continues rise above 5%…

댓글 0 | 조회 663 | 2024.07.24
The average weekly rent paid in Auckland was 5.59% higher in June 2024 than one year ago, rising by $35.91 to $678.30.The statistics are drawn from mo… 더보기

Governor-General at the Paris 2024 Olympic Ga…

댓글 0 | 조회 376 | 2024.07.22
As Patron of the New Zealand Olympic Committee, the Governor-General, The Rt Hon Dame Cindy Kiro leaves New Zealand today to travel to Paris, where sh… 더보기

Sale volumes drop in June, but first home buy…

댓글 0 | 조회 639 | 2024.07.19
As high mortgage rates continue to dampen buyer demand in New Zealand's housing market, residential property sales weakened in June, after a 13-month … 더보기

Raft of policy changes unlikely to shift subd…

댓글 0 | 조회 350 | 2024.07.05
Amidst a raft of policy changes, the renewed weakness in Aotearoa New Zealand's home values continued in June.CoreLogic's House Price Index fell 0.5% … 더보기

Long-term Plan adopted by councillors secures…

댓글 0 | 조회 287 | 2024.06.29
Auckland Council’s Long-term Plan 2024-2034, adopted by Governing Body on Thursday (27 June 2024), is geared at sustainably managing regional growth a… 더보기

Focus on youth wellbeing more urgent than eve…

댓글 0 | 조회 427 | 2024.06.27
More evidence of the state of New Zealand youth mental health -Youth and rangatahi wellbeing and access to services assessment- has been released toda… 더보기

Insights from the field: 10 things to know ab…

댓글 0 | 조회 280 | 2024.06.26
By Kelvin Davidson, CoreLogic NZ Chief Property EconomistRegulatory change is a huge theme for housing at present, so in this environment CoreLogic's … 더보기

Persistent market challenges, despite easing …

댓글 0 | 조회 497 | 2024.06.20
As New Zealand's property market shows a modest recovery in sales volumes, the broader picture indicates activity remains subdued, with listings at el… 더보기

GDP increases 0.2 percent in the March 2024 q…

댓글 0 | 조회 339 | 2024.06.20
New Zealand’s gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.2 percent in the March 2024 quarter, following a 0.1 percent decrease in the December 2023 quarter, … 더보기

NZIER cost of alcohol harms in New Zealand es…

댓글 0 | 조회 473 | 2024.06.19
Alcohol Healthwatch welcomes NZIER costs of alcohol harms in New Zealand report released yesterday.The report commissioned by the Ministry of Health e… 더보기

Property market recovery is losing steam

댓글 0 | 조회 451 | 2024.06.14
Falling property values across a growing number of New Zealand suburbs over the past three months highlights an emerging dip in market momentum.CoreLo… 더보기

Auckland leads slowdown, as national prices d…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,072 | 2024.06.06
Home value growth in Aotearoa New Zealand has completely petered out in the past two months, with values dipping by 0.2% in May, after a minor 0.1% fa… 더보기

Applications open for 2024 Asia business inte…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,225 | 2024.06.05
The Asia New Zealand Foundation Te Whītau Tūhono is offering New Zealand tertiary students and recent graduates a chance to undertake internships with… 더보기

10 things to know about the mortgage market r…

댓글 0 | 조회 661 | 2024.05.28
Given the scrapping of first home grants (deposit assistance) and also the strong indication from the latest Monetary Policy Statement that mortgage r… 더보기

Reserve Bank sticks firmly to the script

댓글 0 | 조회 521 | 2024.05.23
Today's decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to leave the official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 5.5% was no surprise. As also expected, … 더보기

Movers' could be a group to watch

댓글 0 | 조회 588 | 2024.05.22
The surge in available listings in New Zealand's residential housing market is reshaping buyer options, with relocating owner-occupiers (movers) showi… 더보기

Broadband prices in 223 countries revealed. N…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,289 | 2024.05.20
Auckland, New Zealand - NZ Compare (www.nzcompare.com), New Zealand's leading comparison website company, continues to see visitor and user growth as … 더보기

Property resale profits dip as market shifts …

댓글 0 | 조회 761 | 2024.05.16
The resale performance of residential real estate has deteriorated slightly through the first quarter of 2024, as stretched affordability and high mor… 더보기

NZ cleantech delegation heading to South Kore…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,214 | 2024.05.15
Eleven business leaders from New Zealand's ESG and clean technology sectors will travel to South Korea in May to explore the country's growing sustain… 더보기

Winter is coming − what's in store for the ho…

댓글 0 | 조회 671 | 2024.05.14
It's shaping up to be another difficult winter for the housing market, with interest rates, inflation, and rising unemployment continuing to bite.Resi… 더보기

Weaker property prices mean more 'bang for bu…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,406 | 2024.05.08
The country's first home buyers (FHBs) are taking full advantage of lower property prices, the availability of low-deposit finance, opportunities to t… 더보기

House prices flatten in April

댓글 0 | 조회 836 | 2024.05.02
Home value growth in Aotearoa New Zealand stalled in April, with the 0.1% dip indicative of the indecisive nature of the property market at present.Co… 더보기

Government cuts put 130 jobs on the line at K…

댓글 0 | 조회 589 | 2024.05.02
The Government's cuts to public services are targeting Kāinga Ora - the agency charged with fixing the public housing crisis - at a time when 25,000 p… 더보기

Borrowers bet on rate cuts by locking in shor…

댓글 0 | 조회 816 | 2024.04.18
Kiwi borrowers are betting on possible rate cuts, with the proportion of short-term fixed mortgages reaching record levels in February.TheCoreLogic NZ… 더보기