House prices still falling, but at a slower rate

House prices still falling, but at a slower rate

kds2023
0 개 1,449 KoreaPost

The downturn in New Zealands property market continued in April, with average values down by another 0.6%, CoreLogics monthly House Price Index (HPI) shows.

Nationally, average values are 10.3% lower than the same month last year and $115,000 below their March 2022 peak.

CoreLogic NZ Chief Property Economist, Kelvin Davidson said at $928,656, average values were still approximately $200,000 higher than the pre-COVID level (March 2020).

He said while the latest falls werent much of a surprise, it was worth noting the 0.6% decline in April is smaller than the drops of about 1% in each of February and March, and less than the average monthly fall in this cycle so far of 0.9%.


  


The slowdown in the rate of decline could be signalling a near-term floor for house prices, which would be consistent with some shifting trends in key drivers, he said.

The generalised peak for mortgage rates could start to increase buyers confidence in the coming months, while employment remains high, alongside a slight decline in available listings, and rising net migration.

Mr Davidson suggests the impending relaxation of the loan-to-value (LVR) rules could also impact values, an effect which could be amplified if investors try to buy in advance of debt-to-income ratio limits to be introduced next year.

The latest round of changes to the Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act (CCCFA), which comes into force this month, could help a few more borrowers to access the market, due to a less-stringent approach to expenses when the bank is assessing the loan applications.

Of course, should New Zealand fall into a recession there will be an alternative impact on the housing market and we cant ignore the prospect of negative equity either, Mr Davidson said.

CoreLogics latest valuation estimates for individual properties shows approximately 2,500 recent first home buyers could owe more than the value of their property. Buyers in Auckland and Wellington make up the bulk of those properties.

CoreLogic House Price Index - National and Main Centres

2213b0d9497c31d3f0b4be3aaf3f03f9_1683153780_658.gif
 

Among the main centres, Hamilton and Tauranga recorded the biggest falls in average values in April (-1.2%), but Auckland showed a smaller decline, while Christchurch, Dunedin, and Wellington werent far off a flat month for prices. Of course, over 12-month horizons, there are still some reasonably stark differences, with Wellington down by 18.8% and Christchurch a far smaller 3.6% fall.

CoreLogic House Price Index Main Centre Average Value

2213b0d9497c31d3f0b4be3aaf3f03f9_1683153827_8966.gif
 

iven the wider Wellington area has fallen the most to date (among the main centres), it could be a key market to keep an eye on in terms of potentially finding a floor first as well.

There were tentative signs of this in Aprils index results. Upper Hutt recorded a modest 0.1% rise, the second increase in the past three months, while Wellington City also saw average values rise by 0.2%, the first time that the capital has avoided a drop in prices since February last year.

Meanwhile Lower Hutt only saw values drop by 0.3% mild compared to the average monthly fall over the previous three months of 1.3%.


  


Mr Davidson added: A single month of data cant necessarily be relied upon as an indicator of a new trend or phase. But certainly, the rise in values in Wellington City is still worth taking note of.

CoreLogic House Price Index Wellington

2213b0d9497c31d3f0b4be3aaf3f03f9_1683153875_8465.gif
 

ucklands property market generally continued to drop in April, with a fall of 2.8% in Papakura, and declines in the range of 1-1.5% in Waitakere, North Shore, Rodney, and Manukau. However, there were also hints of a turnaround in Auckland City (+0.5%) and Franklin (+1.4%). Over the past three months, those two markets have recorded changes of only -1.1% and +1.1% respectively.

CoreLogic House Price Index Auckland

2213b0d9497c31d3f0b4be3aaf3f03f9_1683153916_768.gif
 

egional House Price Index results

Outside the main centres, there was the usual variability in property values in April.

For example Palmerston North recorded a 2.8% drop in values, while Whangarei saw a 1.9% decline and Kapiti Coast was down by 1.7%. But there were also pockets of growth too, including Rotorua, Hastings, Queenstown, Napier, and Whanganui. Over the past year, Queenstowns property values have tended to buck the weaker national trend, and are currently slightly above the levels from 12 months ago.

Its still very early days in terms of the Cyclone Gabrielle recovery in Hawkes Bay and the impact that might eventually be seen in that areas property market, Mr Davidson said.

But the rise in values in Napier and Hastings in April needs to be watched. Continued gains in the coming months could signal that the reduction in supply is boosting house prices, like we saw in Christchurch post-quakes.

CoreLogic House Price Index Other Main Urban Areas (ordered by annual growth)

2213b0d9497c31d3f0b4be3aaf3f03f9_1683153968_4974.gif
 

Property market outlook

Its still shaping up as a year of two halves, Mr Davidson said, noting that the outlook for 2023 had always been on a weak start with a possible end to the downturn later in the year.

I wouldnt equate a potential near-term stabilisation for housing prices with the immediate start of another upturn, he said.

After all, affordability is still stretched, interest rates may not fall sharply anytime soon, and debt-to-income ratio limits from March next year could restrain a market recovery. I could readily imagine relatively flat house prices into 2024, possibly longer.

  


The potential end of the downturn over the next few months will be viewed differently by buyers and sellers. Existing owners will potentially be happier, but aspiring buyers a little more anxious. If were correct in our outlook and house prices stay broadly flat at the new lower level for at least one to two years, therell still be a period where housing affordability can improve, wages will catch up a little and I think most people would see that as a good thing.

For more property news and insights, visit corelogic.co.nz.

ENDS


Source: CoreLogic NZ

2,318 community cases; 357 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 854 | 2022.08.26
Today we are reporting 2,318 community cases and 357 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 2,855 –… 더보기

Long COVID to be tracked with help of new cod…

댓글 0 | 조회 932 | 2022.08.26
Clinicians around the country are being given the tools to record people diagnosed with long COVID, which will help provide a clearer picture of the i… 더보기

2,780 community cases; 336 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 726 | 2022.08.25
Today we are reporting 2,780 community cases and 336 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 3,061 –… 더보기

New Zealand rate cuts and house price falls c…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,068 | 2022.08.25
New Zealand has provided Australia’s property experts with a test case this year, following thecentral bank’s decision to move early with rate rises i… 더보기

3,140 community cases; 373 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 807 | 2022.08.24
Today we are reporting 3,140 community cases and 373 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 3,303 –… 더보기

3,693 community cases; 402 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 802 | 2022.08.23
Today we are reporting 3,693 community cases and 402 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 3,496 –… 더보기

2,706 community cases; 432 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 743 | 2022.08.22
Today we are reporting 2,706 community cases, 432 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 3,655 – la… 더보기

2,100 community cases; 436 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 756 | 2022.08.21
Today we are reporting 2,100 community cases and 436 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 3,733 –… 더보기

3,302 community cases; 467 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 740 | 2022.08.20
Today we are reporting 3,302 community cases, 467 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 3,828 – la… 더보기

3,805 community cases; 466 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 866 | 2022.08.19
Today we are reporting 3,805 community cases, 466 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 3,876 – la… 더보기

4,540 community cases; 473 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 907 | 2022.08.18
Today we are reporting 4,540 community cases and 473 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 3,928– … 더보기

4,489 community cases; 496 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 803 | 2022.08.17
Today we are reporting 4,489 community cases and 496 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 3,975 –… 더보기

7,297 flu vaccines administered in the last w…

댓글 0 | 조회 800 | 2022.08.17
Influenza vaccines administered in New ZealandThe numbers as at 13 August 20227,297 flu vaccines administered across New Zealand in the past week, bri… 더보기

Latest OCR rise may not hit mortgage rates

댓글 0 | 조회 1,035 | 2022.08.17
As expected the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) delivered another 0.5% increase in the official cash rate (OCR)today, taking it to 3% – the highest level since Se… 더보기

Search and rescue: important upgrades of NZ s…

댓글 0 | 조회 808 | 2022.08.16
Better response for distress beacons in 30m square km of SW PacificImportant upgrades at New Zealand’s search and rescue satellite Earth station begin… 더보기

4,811 community cases; 533 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 755 | 2022.08.16
Today we are reporting 4,811 community cases and 533 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 4,073 –… 더보기

Turning point for profitable resales as gains…

댓글 0 | 조회 803 | 2022.08.16
The resale performance of residential real estate has reached a turning point, CoreLogic NZ’s latest Pain & Gain report shows, with Q2 figures rev… 더보기

Who are the best Broadband, Power and Mobile …

댓글 0 | 조회 821 | 2022.08.16
Recognising excellence, leadership and innovation in the New Zealand utility sectors, the NZ Compare Awards are back for the 6th year and in response … 더보기

Auckland’s local elections candidates confirm…

댓글 0 | 조회 882 | 2022.08.15
462 Aucklanders have successfully lodged their nominations to stand in the local elections. Yes, the race has officially begun as nominations for Auck… 더보기

3,387 community cases; 536 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 751 | 2022.08.15
Today we are reporting 3,387 community cases and 536 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 4,230 –… 더보기

2,618 community cases; 557 hospitalisations, …

댓글 0 | 조회 923 | 2022.08.14
Today we are reporting 2,618 community cases, 557 current hospitalisations and 15 patients in ICU.The seven-day rolling average of community case numb… 더보기

3,650 community cases; 546 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 888 | 2022.08.13
Today we are reporting3,650community cases and546current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is4,418– last … 더보기

Food prices increase 7.4 percent annually

댓글 0 | 조회 845 | 2022.08.12
Food prices were 7.4 percent higher in July 2022 compared with July 2021, Stats NZ said today.In July 2022, the annual increase was due to rises acros… 더보기

4,126 community cases; 549 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 840 | 2022.08.12
Today we are reporting 4,126 community cases and 549 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 4,581. … 더보기

Fourth Monkeypox case

댓글 0 | 조회 928 | 2022.08.12
Manatū Hauora – Ministry of Health and Te Whatu Ora – Health New Zealand are today reporting a fourth case of Monkeypox in New Zealand.The person, who… 더보기

4,818 community cases; 571 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 841 | 2022.08.11
Today we are reporting 4,818 community cases and 571 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 4,750. … 더보기

5,169 community cases; 599 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 773 | 2022.08.11
Today we are reporting 5,169 community cases and 599 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 4,938. … 더보기

5,939 community cases; 634 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 796 | 2022.08.09
Today we are reporting 5,939 community cases and 634 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 5,120. … 더보기

4,006 community cases; 654 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 806 | 2022.08.08
Today we are reporting 4,006 community cases and 654 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 5,288. … 더보기

3,302 community cases; 606 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 1,088 | 2022.08.07
Todaywe are reporting 3,302 community cases and606current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 5,441 – la… 더보기

4,790 community cases; 648 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 933 | 2022.08.06
Todaywe are reporting4,790community cases and648current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 5,608 – last… 더보기

5296 community cases; 605 hospitalisations; 1…

댓글 0 | 조회 869 | 2022.08.05
Today we are reporting 5,296 community cases and 605 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 5,812 –… 더보기

6,152 community cases; 663 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 850 | 2022.08.04
Today we are reporting 6,152 community cases and 663 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 6,142 –… 더보기

Consents for homes still high, but down for s…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,035 | 2022.08.03
In the year ended June 2022, there were 50,736 new homes consented, up 14 percent from the year ended June 2021, Stats NZ said today.“The year ended J… 더보기

Annual wage inflation rises to 3.4 percent

댓글 0 | 조회 1,003 | 2022.08.03
Wage inflation, measured by the labour cost index (LCI), was 3.4 percent in the year ended June 2022, while average ordinary time hourly earnings rose… 더보기

6440 community cases; 704 hospitalisations; 1…

댓글 0 | 조회 964 | 2022.08.03
Today we are reporting 6,440 community cases and 704 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 6,355 –… 더보기

Property values fall at fastest pace since th…

댓글 0 | 조회 931 | 2022.08.03
CoreLogic's House Price Index (HPI), which is the most robust measure of property value change in the market, shows that the current market downturn b… 더보기

7,113 community cases; 738 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 847 | 2022.08.02
Today we are reporting 7,113 community cases and 738 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 6,683 –… 더보기

5,312 community cases; 759 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 807 | 2022.08.01
Today we are reporting 5,312 community cases, 759 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 6,990.Ther… 더보기

4,238 community cases; 806 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 848 | 2022.07.31
Today we are reporting 4,238 community cases, 806 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 7,183.As a… 더보기

6,232 community cases; 769 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 1,020 | 2022.07.30
Today we are reporting 6,232 community cases, 769 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 7,405As at… 더보기

Appointment of Markerita Poutasi as National …

댓글 0 | 조회 800 | 2022.07.29
Te Whatu Ora – Health New Zealand has today announced the appointment of Markerita (Meg) Poutasi as National Director, Pacific Health.Announcing this … 더보기

Auckland welcomes first Māori/Pasifika operat…

댓글 0 | 조회 884 | 2022.07.29
Residents who live in Onehunga and its neighbouring suburbs can now do their part to help reduce the amount of waste going to landfill with the openin… 더보기

7,605 community cases; 799 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 988 | 2022.07.29
Today we are reporting 7,605 community cases, 799 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 7,618.Ther… 더보기

7,627 community cases; 827 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 959 | 2022.07.28
Today we are reporting 7,627 community cases, and 827 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 7,776T… 더보기

21,182 flu vaccines administered in the last …

댓글 0 | 조회 715 | 2022.07.28
Influenza vaccines administered in New ZealandThe numbers as at 22 July 202221,182 flu vaccines administered across New Zealand in the past week, brin… 더보기

One million people aged 65+ by 2028

댓글 0 | 조회 825 | 2022.07.28
The number of people aged 65 years or older (65+) living in New Zealand is likely to hit 1 million by 2028, Stats NZ said today.Population projections… 더보기

Te Whatu Ora media release - Get a hepatitis …

댓글 0 | 조회 762 | 2022.07.28
Get a hepatitis C test on World Hepatitis Day to put your worries behind youNew Zealanders at risk of hepatitis C should make sure to get a quick and … 더보기

8,730 community cases; 808 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 1,054 | 2022.07.27
Today we are reporting 8,730 community cases, and 808 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 8,111.… 더보기

Multiple challenges to test NZ's declining ma…

댓글 0 | 조회 957 | 2022.07.27
The combination of sharply rising interest rates and the large wave of refinancing of existing mortgages that will occur over the next year is set to … 더보기