House prices still falling, but at a slower rate

House prices still falling, but at a slower rate

kds2023
0 개 1,483 KoreaPost

The downturn in New Zealands property market continued in April, with average values down by another 0.6%, CoreLogics monthly House Price Index (HPI) shows.

Nationally, average values are 10.3% lower than the same month last year and $115,000 below their March 2022 peak.

CoreLogic NZ Chief Property Economist, Kelvin Davidson said at $928,656, average values were still approximately $200,000 higher than the pre-COVID level (March 2020).

He said while the latest falls werent much of a surprise, it was worth noting the 0.6% decline in April is smaller than the drops of about 1% in each of February and March, and less than the average monthly fall in this cycle so far of 0.9%.


  


The slowdown in the rate of decline could be signalling a near-term floor for house prices, which would be consistent with some shifting trends in key drivers, he said.

The generalised peak for mortgage rates could start to increase buyers confidence in the coming months, while employment remains high, alongside a slight decline in available listings, and rising net migration.

Mr Davidson suggests the impending relaxation of the loan-to-value (LVR) rules could also impact values, an effect which could be amplified if investors try to buy in advance of debt-to-income ratio limits to be introduced next year.

The latest round of changes to the Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act (CCCFA), which comes into force this month, could help a few more borrowers to access the market, due to a less-stringent approach to expenses when the bank is assessing the loan applications.

Of course, should New Zealand fall into a recession there will be an alternative impact on the housing market and we cant ignore the prospect of negative equity either, Mr Davidson said.

CoreLogics latest valuation estimates for individual properties shows approximately 2,500 recent first home buyers could owe more than the value of their property. Buyers in Auckland and Wellington make up the bulk of those properties.

CoreLogic House Price Index - National and Main Centres

2213b0d9497c31d3f0b4be3aaf3f03f9_1683153780_658.gif
 

Among the main centres, Hamilton and Tauranga recorded the biggest falls in average values in April (-1.2%), but Auckland showed a smaller decline, while Christchurch, Dunedin, and Wellington werent far off a flat month for prices. Of course, over 12-month horizons, there are still some reasonably stark differences, with Wellington down by 18.8% and Christchurch a far smaller 3.6% fall.

CoreLogic House Price Index Main Centre Average Value

2213b0d9497c31d3f0b4be3aaf3f03f9_1683153827_8966.gif
 

iven the wider Wellington area has fallen the most to date (among the main centres), it could be a key market to keep an eye on in terms of potentially finding a floor first as well.

There were tentative signs of this in Aprils index results. Upper Hutt recorded a modest 0.1% rise, the second increase in the past three months, while Wellington City also saw average values rise by 0.2%, the first time that the capital has avoided a drop in prices since February last year.

Meanwhile Lower Hutt only saw values drop by 0.3% mild compared to the average monthly fall over the previous three months of 1.3%.


  


Mr Davidson added: A single month of data cant necessarily be relied upon as an indicator of a new trend or phase. But certainly, the rise in values in Wellington City is still worth taking note of.

CoreLogic House Price Index Wellington

2213b0d9497c31d3f0b4be3aaf3f03f9_1683153875_8465.gif
 

ucklands property market generally continued to drop in April, with a fall of 2.8% in Papakura, and declines in the range of 1-1.5% in Waitakere, North Shore, Rodney, and Manukau. However, there were also hints of a turnaround in Auckland City (+0.5%) and Franklin (+1.4%). Over the past three months, those two markets have recorded changes of only -1.1% and +1.1% respectively.

CoreLogic House Price Index Auckland

2213b0d9497c31d3f0b4be3aaf3f03f9_1683153916_768.gif
 

egional House Price Index results

Outside the main centres, there was the usual variability in property values in April.

For example Palmerston North recorded a 2.8% drop in values, while Whangarei saw a 1.9% decline and Kapiti Coast was down by 1.7%. But there were also pockets of growth too, including Rotorua, Hastings, Queenstown, Napier, and Whanganui. Over the past year, Queenstowns property values have tended to buck the weaker national trend, and are currently slightly above the levels from 12 months ago.

Its still very early days in terms of the Cyclone Gabrielle recovery in Hawkes Bay and the impact that might eventually be seen in that areas property market, Mr Davidson said.

But the rise in values in Napier and Hastings in April needs to be watched. Continued gains in the coming months could signal that the reduction in supply is boosting house prices, like we saw in Christchurch post-quakes.

CoreLogic House Price Index Other Main Urban Areas (ordered by annual growth)

2213b0d9497c31d3f0b4be3aaf3f03f9_1683153968_4974.gif
 

Property market outlook

Its still shaping up as a year of two halves, Mr Davidson said, noting that the outlook for 2023 had always been on a weak start with a possible end to the downturn later in the year.

I wouldnt equate a potential near-term stabilisation for housing prices with the immediate start of another upturn, he said.

After all, affordability is still stretched, interest rates may not fall sharply anytime soon, and debt-to-income ratio limits from March next year could restrain a market recovery. I could readily imagine relatively flat house prices into 2024, possibly longer.

  


The potential end of the downturn over the next few months will be viewed differently by buyers and sellers. Existing owners will potentially be happier, but aspiring buyers a little more anxious. If were correct in our outlook and house prices stay broadly flat at the new lower level for at least one to two years, therell still be a period where housing affordability can improve, wages will catch up a little and I think most people would see that as a good thing.

For more property news and insights, visit corelogic.co.nz.

ENDS


Source: CoreLogic NZ

Auckland welcomes first Māori/Pasifika operat…

댓글 0 | 조회 908 | 2022.07.29
Residents who live in Onehunga and its neighbouring suburbs can now do their part to help reduce the amount of waste going to landfill with the openin… 더보기

7,605 community cases; 799 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 1,025 | 2022.07.29
Today we are reporting 7,605 community cases, 799 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 7,618.Ther… 더보기

7,627 community cases; 827 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 1,016 | 2022.07.28
Today we are reporting 7,627 community cases, and 827 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 7,776T… 더보기

21,182 flu vaccines administered in the last …

댓글 0 | 조회 751 | 2022.07.28
Influenza vaccines administered in New ZealandThe numbers as at 22 July 202221,182 flu vaccines administered across New Zealand in the past week, brin… 더보기

One million people aged 65+ by 2028

댓글 0 | 조회 874 | 2022.07.28
The number of people aged 65 years or older (65+) living in New Zealand is likely to hit 1 million by 2028, Stats NZ said today.Population projections… 더보기

Te Whatu Ora media release - Get a hepatitis …

댓글 0 | 조회 814 | 2022.07.28
Get a hepatitis C test on World Hepatitis Day to put your worries behind youNew Zealanders at risk of hepatitis C should make sure to get a quick and … 더보기

8,730 community cases; 808 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 1,117 | 2022.07.27
Today we are reporting 8,730 community cases, and 808 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 8,111.… 더보기

Multiple challenges to test NZ's declining ma…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,014 | 2022.07.27
The combination of sharply rising interest rates and the large wave of refinancing of existing mortgages that will occur over the next year is set to … 더보기

9,256 community cases; 822 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 1,106 | 2022.07.26
Today we are reporting 9,256 community cases, and 822 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 8,335.… 더보기

6,910 community cases; 836 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 1,052 | 2022.07.25
Today we are reporting 6,910 community cases, 836 current hospitalisations, and 16 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers toda… 더보기

5,535 community cases; 720 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 1,049 | 2022.07.24
Today we are reporting 5,535 community cases, 720 current hospitalisations, and 14 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers toda… 더보기

7,746 community cases; 759 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 1,079 | 2022.07.23
Today we are reporting 7,746 community cases, 759 current hospitalisations, and 22 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers toda… 더보기

8,728 community cases; 759 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 996 | 2022.07.22
Today we are reporting 8,728 community cases, 759 current hospitalisations, and 26 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers toda… 더보기

Greenhouse gases increasing but still below p…

댓글 0 | 조회 816 | 2022.07.22
Seasonally adjusted greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased 1.1 percent (205 kilotonnes) in the December 2021 quarter from the September 2021 quarter… 더보기

9,953 community cases; 767 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 1,020 | 2022.07.21
Today we are reporting 9,953 community cases, 767 current hospitalisations, and 32 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers toda… 더보기

29,435 flu vaccines administered in the last …

댓글 0 | 조회 795 | 2022.07.21
Influenza vaccines administered in New ZealandThe numbers as at 16 July 202229,435 flu vaccines administered across New Zealand in the past week, brin… 더보기

Construction costs rising at the fastest pace…

댓글 0 | 조회 941 | 2022.07.21
CoreLogic NZ’sCordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI)for Q2 2022 showed national residential construction cost pressures have continued to escalate, wi… 더보기

10,320 community cases; 744 hospitalisations;…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,092 | 2022.07.20
Today we are reporting 10,320 community cases, 744 current hospitalisations, and 34 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers tod… 더보기

10,424 community cases; 788 hospitalisations;…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,016 | 2022.07.19
Today we are reporting 10,424 community cases, 788 current hospitalisations, and 21 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers tod… 더보기

7,612 community cases; 797 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 1,000 | 2022.07.18
Today we are reporting 7,612 community cases, 797 current hospitalisations, and 22 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers toda… 더보기

Annual inflation at 7.3 percent, 32-year high

댓글 0 | 조회 878 | 2022.07.18
The consumers price index increased 7.3 percent in the June 2022 quarter compared with the June 2021 quarter, Stats NZ said today. The 7.3 percent inc… 더보기

6,223 community cases; 733 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 1,073 | 2022.07.17
Today we are reporting 6,223 community cases, 733 current hospitalisations, and 22 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers toda… 더보기

9,241 community cases; 761 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 1,031 | 2022.07.16
Today we are reporting 9,241 community cases, 761 current hospitalisations, and 29 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers toda… 더보기

10,470 community cases; 773 hospitalisations;…

댓글 0 | 조회 935 | 2022.07.15
Today we are reporting 10,470 community cases, 773 current hospitalisations, and 16 deaths. The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers to… 더보기

33,894 flu vaccines administered in the last …

댓글 0 | 조회 1,000 | 2022.07.15
Influenza vaccines administered in New ZealandThe numbers as at 9 July 202233,894 flu vaccines administered across New Zealand in the past week, bring… 더보기

Pharmac widens access for COVID-19 antiviral …

댓글 0 | 조회 947 | 2022.07.14
Te Pātaka Whaioranga - Pharmac has confirmed today that it is further widening access to the three antiviral treatments it funds for treating early CO… 더보기

New measures to tackle COVID-19 and flu

댓글 0 | 조회 1,075 | 2022.07.14
Expanded eligibility for antiviralsMaking COVID-19 medicines available in pharmacies to help ease pressure on GPsSignificantly expanding access to fre… 더보기

11,382 community cases; 765 hospitalisations;…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,189 | 2022.07.14
Today we are reporting 11,382 community cases, 765 current hospitalisations, and 23 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers tod… 더보기

High inflation and full employment mean inevi…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,069 | 2022.07.13
The Reserve Bank duly delivered another 0.5% rise in the official cash rate (OCR) today, as had beenwidely expected, taking it to 2.5%. This is the hi… 더보기

11,464 community cases; 729 hospitalisations;…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,228 | 2022.07.13
Today we are reporting 11,464 community cases, 729 current hospitalisations, and 29 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers tod… 더보기

11,548 community cases; 710 hospitalisations;…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,058 | 2022.07.12
Today we are reporting 11,548 community cases, 710 current hospitalisations, and 19 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers tod… 더보기

New Director of Public Health appointed

댓글 0 | 조회 931 | 2022.07.11
A new Director of Public Health has been appointed and will join Manatū Hauora on 15 August, Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield says.Dr N… 더보기

8,395 community cases; 689 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 1,045 | 2022.07.11
Today we are reporting 8,395 community cases, 689 current hospitalisations, and 17 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers toda… 더보기

7,461 community cases; 662 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 1,053 | 2022.07.10
Today we are reporting 7,461 community cases and 662 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 9,000.W… 더보기

New Zealand’s first Monkeypox case in isolati…

댓글 0 | 조회 952 | 2022.07.09
The Ministry of Health is reporting the first case of Monkeypox in New Zealand.The person is in their 30s, lives in Auckland and has recently returned… 더보기

9,307 community cases; 570 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 948 | 2022.07.09
Today we are reporting 9,307 community cases and 570 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 8,690.W… 더보기

NZ COVID-19 case numbers corrected to 9,318

댓글 0 | 조회 1,280 | 2022.07.08
A computer glitch that double counted some cases already reported yesterday resulted in today’s case numbers being incorrectly reported as 13,344. The… 더보기

10,710 community cases; 554 hospitalisations;…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,060 | 2022.07.07
Today we are reporting 10,710 community cases and 554 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 8,013.… 더보기

10,290 community cases; 522 hospitalisations;…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,355 | 2022.07.06
Today we are reporting 10,290 community cases and 522 current hospitalisations. The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 7,591… 더보기

Downturn sets in with a hat-trick of -0.8% pr…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,217 | 2022.07.05
Downturn sets in with a hat-trick of -0.8% property value falls nationallyCoreLogic's House Price Index (HPI), which is the most robust measure of pro… 더보기

9,629 community cases; 493 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 1,115 | 2022.07.05
Today we are reporting 9,629 community cases and 493 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 7,246We… 더보기

6,498 community cases; 487 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 1,008 | 2022.07.04
Today we are reporting 6,498 community cases and 487 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 7,046.W… 더보기

4,924 community cases; 424 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 975 | 2022.07.03
Today we are reporting 4,924 community cases and 424 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 6,895.W… 더보기

6,460 community cases; 423 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 838 | 2022.07.02
Today we are reporting 6,460 community cases and 423 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 6,825.W… 더보기

6,984 community cases; 417 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 1,077 | 2022.07.01
Today we are reporting 6,984 community cases and 417 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 6,422.W… 더보기

7,423 community cases; 411 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 997 | 2022.06.30
Today we are reporting 7,423 community cases and 411 current hospitalisations.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 6,114.W… 더보기

COVID-19 reinfection advice updated

댓글 0 | 조회 880 | 2022.06.30
The Ministry of Health has today updated its advice for those who experience COVID-19 symptoms more than 28 days after having had COVID-19.If a person… 더보기

Southern Cross Travel Insurance says 32 per c…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,516 | 2022.06.30
Today,Southern Cross Travel Insurancehas revealed the impact the Omicron variant has had on its business since travel picked up as the borders reopene… 더보기

7,829 community cases; 395 hospitalisations; …

댓글 0 | 조회 1,073 | 2022.06.29
Today we are reporting7,829 community cases, 395 current hospitalisations, and 15 deaths.The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today… 더보기

Ongoing flexibility extended for Family/Whāna…

댓글 0 | 조회 1,115 | 2022.06.29
This announcement applies to people who are funded via Disability Support Services.Carer SupportAs a response to COVID-19 and its challenges, changes … 더보기